The 12-Team CFP is Here and It’s Already Beautiful Chaos
Rivalry Week delivered and the CFP picture is still shifting. Photo: Unsplash
YO. Black Friday football was INSANE and I need to talk about what just happened in the Lone Star State because Texas absolutely demolished the Aggies’ playoff bye hopes. That 35-yard rushing touchdown from the QB? Statement play. Texas A&M was sitting pretty, thinking they had a first-round bye locked up, and then their rivals showed up and said nah, not today.
According to ESPN’s rivalry week breakdown, Texas A&M “may no longer get a bye” after that loss. The committee had them in a great position and one rivalry game changed everything. That’s college football, man. That’s why we watch this jawn.
Meanwhile Indiana handled Purdue and clinched their spot in the Big Ten Championship game. The Hoosiers have been the committee’s #2 team in every ranking so far and they’re not slowing down. They still have a shot at the #1 overall seed depending on how championship weekend plays out. Fernando Mendoza is playing lights out and that defense is no joke.
Marcus’s Take:
Ole Miss probably locked up a playoff spot with their win against Mississippi State. One-loss Rebels should be a lock according to everyone paying attention. But here’s where it gets interesting—Lane Kiffin might not even be coaching them in the playoffs. The CFP protocol says the committee can consider “unavailability of key players and coaches” when making selections. Wild stuff.
Let’s talk about the bracket real quick. NCAA.com’s bracket projection based on the fourth rankings shows potential first-round matchups like Tulane at Texas Tech. A Group of Five team hosting a first-round game? That’s what the expansion was supposed to create. More access, more meaningful games, more programs with a shot at the title.
The conference championship games next weekend are going to be massive. Oregon is still the favorite to come out of the Big Ten. Ohio State is lurking. Georgia could make a run if they win the SEC. And then you got teams like Miami who jumped to #12 after BYU’s drop—the ACC could get multiple teams in if everything breaks right.
Real Talk:
Here’s my issue though: the committee rankings still feel arbitrary sometimes. How is Miami jumping teams after other programs lose? What exactly are the criteria? We’re in year two of this format and I still can’t fully predict how they weight things. Strength of schedule matters until it doesn’t. Conference championships matter until they don’t.
According to Sports Illustrated, the AP rankings are shifting after Black Friday results and events in Texas “will have a direct impact” on what the new CFP bracket looks like. Championship weekend could completely reshuffle everything.
The Good News:
My prediction for the final four seeds: Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia. But honestly this year has been so unpredictable that I wouldn’t be shocked if Indiana or Penn State crashes that party. The Big Ten is LOADED and the SEC isn’t the automatic powerhouse it used to be.
Championship weekend is going to be must-watch television. My old ankle from my playing days is already acting up just thinking about how stressful these games are gonna be. But that’s the whole point, right? That’s why they expanded the playoff. More stress, more drama, more moments that matter.
Ard, I’ll be watching every single game next weekend. And probably yelling at my TV the whole time. That’s college football in 2025.
