Empty office desk with laptop

Photo by Scott Graham on Unsplash

Remember when everyone said 2024 was the year tech layoffs would end? Yeah, about that. According to TrueUp’s layoff tracker, 182,963 people have been impacted across 626 layoff events in 2025 so far. We’re not even done with the year and we’ve already blown past most predictions.

The narrative was supposed to be recovery. Interest rates stabilizing. AI boom creating new jobs. Companies that overhired during the pandemic finally right-sized. Instead we got HP announcing 4,000-6,000 cuts, Synopsys eliminating 2,000 positions (10% of their workforce), and Amazon continuing to thin middle management ranks.

According to TechCrunch’s running tracker, November alone saw 20 tech companies lay off 4,545 workers. That’s in addition to the Starbucks restructuring that cut 900 corporate jobs and announced 500 store closures under new CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround plan.

The pattern is clear: companies are using AI as justification for workforce reduction even when the underlying issue is margin pressure. HP explicitly cited AI adoption as the reason for cuts. But their financials tell a simpler story—revenue grew 3.2% while earnings per share dropped 5.7%. That’s a profitability problem, not a technology transformation.

The middle management apocalypse continues. Amazon’s internal memos suggest more cuts coming as AI thins the layer of people who coordinate and communicate between teams. When ChatGPT can summarize reports and Slack bots can route requests, the value proposition of the human coordinator diminishes.

Starbucks is an interesting case study. According to CNBC’s reporting, this is CEO Brian Niccol’s second round of cuts—he eliminated 1,100 positions in February. The total $1 billion restructuring is explicitly framed as operational efficiency rather than AI replacement, but the retail sector is watching closely. If Starbucks can run leaner, every food service company will ask why they can’t.

The geographic distribution matters too. According to layoff trackers, California remains the hardest hit state, followed by Washington and Texas. Tech hubs that grew fastest during the 2020-2021 hiring boom are now experiencing the sharpest corrections.

What’s different about 2025 layoffs versus 2023-2024? The justifications have shifted. Early pandemic-era cuts were framed as “returning to normal after overhiring.” Current cuts are framed as “transformation” and “AI adoption.” The actual mechanics—reducing headcount to improve margins—remain identical.

For workers still employed in tech, the implications are stark. Job security is a myth. The skills that made you valuable in 2022 may be automatable by 2026. Companies will use any available justification—AI, market conditions, strategic pivot—to reduce costs when growth slows.

The companies that aren’t cutting are notable by their absence. Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI-native firms continue hiring. The disruption creates winners and losers simultaneously. If your skills align with what’s ascending, you’re fine. If they align with what’s being automated, start planning now.

2025 isn’t over. The holiday season traditionally slows layoff announcements as companies avoid bad PR during festive months. Expect January 2026 to bring another wave as companies reset for the new fiscal year with “efficiency initiatives” that mean exactly what you think they mean.