Theater marquee lights at night

Photo by Krists Luhaers on Unsplash

The conventional wisdom about Broadway-to-film adaptations has been rewritten. For years, Hollywood executives treated stage musicals as risky propositions—beloved by niche audiences but commercially unreliable. Cats (2019) became shorthand for everything that could go wrong. Even successful adaptations like Les Misérables (2012) were considered exceptions rather than templates. Wicked has changed the calculation entirely.

The numbers are staggering. Part One crossed $700 million globally according to Universal’s earnings report, making it the highest-grossing stage musical adaptation ever—surpassing Mamma Mia’s previous record. Part Two opened to $147 million domestically, the biggest debut for any Broadway adaptation in history. Combined, the two films will likely surpass $1.5 billion worldwide.

What accounts for this success? Several factors converge that other adaptations have failed to replicate.

First, casting. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are not merely talented performers—they are cultural forces with dedicated fanbases. Grande brings 380 million Instagram followers; Erivo brings a Tony Award and critical legitimacy. The combination attracts both the pop audience and the theater crowd simultaneously. Previous adaptations often compromised on one demographic or the other.

Second, the two-film structure. Splitting Wicked allowed Jon M. Chu to give both acts of the musical proper cinematic treatment. Stage musicals compress storytelling out of theatrical necessity; film adaptations often inherit this compression, resulting in rushed emotional beats. By doubling the runtime across two films, Wicked breathes in ways its predecessors could not.

Third, production design. The $150 million budget per film enabled practical sets at a scale rarely attempted for musicals. Real tulips. Built environments. Practical effects supplemented by Industrial Light & Magic’s digital work. The result feels tangible in ways that CGI-heavy productions like Cats conspicuously did not.

Fourth, faithful adaptation. Rick Riordan’s involvement in Percy Jackson demonstrates how author participation improves adaptations; similarly, original Wicked composer Stephen Schwartz and librettist Winnie Holzman’s direct involvement ensured the film honored what made the stage production beloved while expanding appropriately for the medium.

The implications for Hollywood are significant. Every studio is now re-evaluating their musical property portfolios. According to industry reporting, at least a dozen Broadway adaptations are currently in various stages of development, with studios more willing to greenlight projects that would have seemed too risky pre-Wicked.

However, the Wicked template is not universally applicable. The show benefits from 20 years of cultural penetration—generations have grown up with “Defying Gravity” as a standard. Properties without equivalent brand recognition will struggle to replicate its opening weekend numbers regardless of adaptation quality.

The lesson Wicked teaches is not that all musicals can succeed as films, but that the right musical, adapted with appropriate resources and creative care, can achieve blockbuster status. The challenge for Hollywood is identifying which properties merit that investment—and avoiding the temptation to greenlight everything with a Tony Award in its history.