Who Will Lead NBA in Scoring Next Season? Beal, Curry: Here Are the Odds
The NBA offseason is prime time for betting on things that wont be decided for months and the scoring title race is one of those markets that attracts a lot of action. Sportsbooks have already posted odds on who will lead the league in points per game next season, and the names at the top are exactly who youd expect – Bradley Beal, Steph Curry, and the usual suspects who put up numbers regardless of team success.
Beal is interesting because hes on a terrible Wizards team which means he has the green light to shoot basically whenever he wants. Volume matters for scoring titles and when youre the only offensive option, volume comes naturally. He averaged over 30 points per game last season before the shutdown and theres no reason to think that changes. Washington still has nobody else who can create their own shot consistently. Sports betting markets price in these team context factors which is why bad team players often have better odds for individual awards.
The Favorites And Why They Make Sense
Curry returning from injury is the wild card that makes this market interesting. When healthy hes probably the best scorer in the league – the range, the efficiency, the ability to explode for 40+ on any given night. But he missed almost all of last season with a broken hand and Klay Thompson is out again with an Achilles injury. That means defenses can focus entirely on Steph which could either hurt his efficiency or increase his volume as he carries more offensive load. Hard to predict which way it goes.
Then youve got the superstars on good teams who could win scoring titles but probably wont prioritize personal stats. LeBron, Kawhi, Harden (wherever he ends up), Giannis – any of them could average 30+ if they wanted to but they play on teams where winning requires sharing the ball. The scoring title usually goes to someone who needs to carry an enormous offensive burden, and those guys have better teammates than Beal does.
Dark Horses And Value Plays
If youre looking for value, think about players whose situations might change. A trade can completely alter someones role and usage rate. Guys on tanking teams suddenly become featured scorers. Young stars taking leap years sometimes emerge seemingly from nowhere to put up big numbers. The books price in what they know but cant fully anticipate random mid-season developments.
Zion Williamson is one to watch if you believe hes healthy. The efficiency and skill set are there – the question is whether New Orleans actually runs their offense through him or tries to balance him with Brandon Ingram. Trae Young on Atlanta has no reason not to chuck since they wont be competing for anything. Luka Doncic might be the best player in the league in a few years and could put up huge numbers if Dallas doesnt improve around him.
The scoring title is ultimately about opportunity as much as ability. You need touches, you need minutes, and you need a coach willing to let you shoot your way out of slumps. Beal checks all those boxes which is why hes the favorite even though hes probably not one of the five best players in the league. Context matters more than raw talent for counting stats.
Durability also matters more than people realize. Missing ten games when youre averaging 30 points puts you significantly behind someone whos played all 72. The minimum games requirement exists but barely – as long as you hit the threshold, youre eligible regardless of how many games healthier players appeared in. So injury-prone guys are riskier bets even if their per-game averages are elite.
If youre betting on this market, think about situations more than names. Who has the greenest light? Who has no competition for usage? Who plays for a team thats going nowhere and might as well let their best player put up stats? Those are the guys who win scoring titles. The best players in the league often dont because theyre sharing the ball and resting for playoffs. Its a weird incentive structure but thats how counting stats work.
