Micron Stock Explodes 11% After AI Memory Forecast Blows Past Wall Street Expectations
Look I dont get excited about earnings reports anymore. Ive been doing this too long. But what Micron just did? That got my attention.
The memory chipmaker dropped their fiscal Q1 2026 results Wednesday night and the numbers werent just good. They were the kind of numbers that make analysts look stupid. Revenue came in at $13.64 billion when Wall Street was expecting maybe $12.8 billion. Earnings per share hit $4.78 versus the $3.95 consensus. And then they went and issued guidance that made everyone’s jaws drop.
Q2 revenue guidance? $18.7 billion. Wall Street had penciled in $14.2 billion. Thats not a beat. Thats a demolition.
The stock jumped 11% on Thursday and frankly Im surprised it wasnt more. Because what Micron is really saying here is that AI memory demand isnt just strong – its insatiable. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra used words like “sold out” and “supply constrained” which in the semiconductor world is basically printing money.
Heres the thing that really matters for anyone trying to understand growth stock investing. Micron said their entire high-bandwidth memory supply for calendar 2026 is already spoken for. All of it. Including the next-gen HBM4 chips that arent even in mass production yet. They basically pre-sold a years worth of their most profitable product.
The gross margin guidance is what really tells the story though. Theyre projecting 68% gross margins for Q2. For a memory company. Memory has historically been a brutal commodity business where margins get crushed every few years when everyone overbuilds capacity. A 68% gross margin would have been unthinkable five years ago.
According to CNBC reporting, Micron expects the total addressable market for HBM to hit $100 billion by 2028. Thats up from about $35 billion in 2025. And theyre saying that $100 billion number is coming two years earlier than they previously expected.
I spent 15 years watching Detroit automakers get blindsided by every market shift. This feels different. Micron saw the AI wave coming and they positioned for it. They even announced theyre exiting their consumer Crucial brand business to focus entirely on the high-margin data center stuff.
Is it sustainable? Thats the $252 billion question – literally thats roughly Microns market cap now. Memory cycles have a way of turning tight into too much in a hurry. But right now? Right now Micron is exactly where every company wants to be: selling everything they can make at premium prices to customers who are desperate to buy.
The AI trade just got another data point that says the spending is real.
