Social media app icons on phone screen

Photo by dole777 on Unsplash

Bluesky announced in October that it reached 40 million registered users, doubling from 20 million in roughly a year. According to TechCrunch’s coverage, the milestone came alongside new features including a “dislikes” beta for feed personalization. The numbers appear to validate the platform’s position as a viable Twitter alternative.

The growth trajectory, however, tells a more complicated story. According to Social Media Today’s analysis, Bluesky went from adding 5 million users per month at its post-election peak to approximately 1.4 million per month currently. The platform benefited enormously from political dissatisfaction following the November 2024 US election, when users fled X (formerly Twitter) in response to Elon Musk’s increasingly prominent role in the Trump administration.

That surge has normalized. According to TechCrunch’s January analysis, December 2024 saw 12% growth in US daily active users compared to 284% growth in November. The exodus that briefly made Bluesky feel inevitable has subsided into steady but unspectacular expansion.

The competitive context matters. Threads, Meta’s Twitter alternative, reports 400 million monthly active users—ten times Bluesky’s total registered base. X claims over 300 million monthly actives despite the controversies surrounding Musk’s ownership. Bluesky, at 40 million registered users with approximately 3.5 million daily actives, remains a niche player regardless of its cultural prominence among journalists and developers.

The platform’s decentralized architecture represents both its distinction and its constraint. Built on the AT Protocol, Bluesky allows users and developers control over moderation, identity, and algorithmic curation. This technical sophistication appeals to those concerned about platform governance but creates friction for mainstream adoption. Most users do not care about protocol architecture; they care about whether their friends are present.

According to Backlinko’s statistics, the United States accounts for approximately 50% of Bluesky’s traffic, followed by Japan (6%), the UK (5%), and Germany (5%). The geographic concentration reflects the platform’s origin as a response to American political dynamics rather than global social media dissatisfaction.

Bluesky’s funding position adds pressure. The company has raised $23 million across two rounds, most recently a $15 million Series A in October 2024. This is modest compared to the resources available to Meta (Threads) or the revenue X generates despite its troubles. Without advertising—which Bluesky has avoided—the path to sustainability remains unclear.

The platform has begun introducing features to improve retention: trending topics, improved verification, and the aforementioned dislikes system. These changes reflect a shift from pure growth to engagement optimization. Whether they are sufficient to retain users who joined during political moments but lack ongoing reasons to return remains uncertain.

Bluesky’s significance may ultimately lie not in its user numbers but in its demonstration that alternatives to corporate social media can achieve scale. The 40 million milestone proves decentralized platforms can attract substantial audiences. Whether they can sustain them against well-resourced competitors is the unanswered question.