Micron Hit All-Time Highs and the AI Memory Shortage Isn’t Going Away

Micron stock touched $294.50 on Christmas Eve. All-time high. Up over 240% for the year. And the company says theyre completely sold out of high-bandwidth memory through 2026.

This isnt a temporary shortage. This is a structural shift in how memory works and what it’s worth.

The Numbers That Matter

CNBC reports Micron crushed Q1 estimates with $13.64 billion in revenue – up from $8.7 billion a year ago. Earnings hit $4.78 per share versus expectations of $3.95.

But the guidance is what sent the stock flying. Q2 revenue expected around $18.7 billion – thats $4 billion more than analysts predicted. Adjusted earnings forecast: $8.42 per share versus $4.78 expected. Nearly double.

Gross margins expanded to 56.8% and are heading toward 68% by early 2026 according to analyst estimates. Memory used to be a commodity business with razor-thin margins. Not anymore.

The HBM Shortage

High-bandwidth memory is the bottleneck. Its what goes into AI servers alongside Nvidia and AMD chips. Without HBM, those GPUs cant do their job properly.

Seeking Alpha notes Micron forecasts the HBM market growing at roughly 40% annually through 2028, reaching $100 billion. Thats bigger than the entire DRAM market was in 2024.

And supply cant keep up. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron expects to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from key customers in the medium term. They physically cannot make chips fast enough.

Winners and Losers

Micron and SK Hynix are winning big. SK Hynix still leads with about 62% HBM market share while Micron grabbed 21%. Samsung is struggling – yield issues with their 12-layer HBM stacks knocked their share down to 17%.

Equipment makers like ASML and Applied Materials are riding the wave too. You cant build memory fabs without their tools.

The losers? PC and consumer electronics manufacturers facing rising memory costs. Dell and HP have to pay more for standard DRAM as capacity shifts to higher-margin AI chips. Those costs will flow through to consumers in 2026.

How Long Can This Last

AI infrastructure spending shows no signs of slowing. Every major tech company is racing to build out data centers. They all need memory. The same memory Micron cant make fast enough.

Memory has always been cyclical – boom then bust. The question is whether AI demand is different enough to sustain this “supercycle” longer than previous runs.

Microns $20 billion capex plan for 2026 suggests they think it is. Whether the stock at nearly $300 has priced in everything good that could happen… thats the real question for investors.

For now though? Memory is having its moment.